Background
What is the Archetype, and Why Does It Matter?
The Archetype…
A Blueprint for the Energy Transition
The energy transition archetype outlines the key steps needed to shift from a fossil fuel-based energy system to one that is clean, affordable, and sustainable. It illustrates how different aspects—such as infrastructure, technology, policies, and social implications—interconnect over time. While it addresses broader “energy transitions,” its primary focus aligns with the project CASE ,centering on the power sector.
A Flexible Framework for All Countries
Designed as a universal framework, the archetype provides a general roadmap for power sector transformation that applies across different countries and regions. However, each country’s transition journey varies in speed and starting conditions. To accommodate these differences, the archetype is complemented by the power sector tracking tool, which enables stakeholders to measure country-specific progress using key indicators.
A Shared Understanding Among CASE Members
This framework represents the collective understanding of CASE members on what the power sector transition in Southeast Asia entails. It ensures alignment among consortium partners, enabling them to set clear, strategic goals. Beyond serving as a conceptual guide for tracking progress, it also facilitates discussions with stakeholders working on the energy transition—ranging from policymakers to the general public.
A Collaborative Effort
The archetype is the result of extensive collaboration among CASE consortium members. Developed through consultations and discussions, it integrates diverse perspectives from international, climate policy, and national viewpoints to create a shared vision for the future of the power sector.
From the Present to a Sustainable Future
The archetype defines four critical elements of the power sector transition: technologies, flexibility, market design, and grid structure. Each element presents challenges that vary by country but must be addressed to accelerate progress. By identifying these challenges, the archetype helps stakeholders determine where interventions and actions are needed to drive the shift towards a clean, affordable, and sustainable energy system.
Approach
From status quo to long term vision
The archetype defines four key elements of the power sector transition and the vision of their future state: technologies, flexibility, market design and grid structure. In order to achieve this vision, a range of challenges need to be addressed and overcome. The challenges are generic in the sense that they may be present to varying degrees according to country contexts.
The archetype describes each of these challenges as a way to help stakeholders understand where interventions and actions may be needed to accelerate the move towards a clean, affordable and sustainable power system.
Key Elements
Renewables
Flexibility
Grid Structure
Market Design
Challenge Groups
Social Acceptance
Capability
Institutions/Policies
Investment
Entry
Grid Integration
Fossil Industry
Supply Chain
Political Will
The Power Sector’s Role in the Energy Transition
Transforming the power sector is a long-term process that varies by country. While some nations may take years or even decades to transition, accelerating this shift is crucial. The power sector is a key driver of decarbonisation, not just within the energy industry but across all high-emission sectors.
A fast and effective shift to low-carbon electricity is essential for achieving net-zero emissions across the economy. Many industries—including transport and heating—rely on electrification to cut carbon emissions. Clean electricity is needed to charge electric vehicles, produce low-carbon fuels like hydrogen and ammonia, and power heat pumps in homes. As electricity demand rises, the transition must not only replace fossil fuel-based generation with renewable alternatives but also expand system capacity to meet future needs. When combined with digital solutions, electrification can improve the integration of variable renewable energy sources, ensuring a more efficient and stable power system.
Beyond emissions reduction, the power sector is a key pillar of economic growth and development. Managing this transition carefully is essential to ensuring a just and inclusive process that benefits society as a whole.
The archetype as the conceptual framework to track progress
The archetype provides the basis and framing of the power sector tracking tool and is centred around key challenges to achieve the long-term vision of the sector in its various dimensions. In alignment with the archetype the tracking tool has also been developed from the basis of the key challenges faced in the power sector transition. The challenges were identified through a research process involving all CASE consortium partners, reflecting the country and regional (SEA) perspectives, cross checked against typical challenges encountered in other parts of the world.
Whilst the archetype is a general conceptual framework applicable to all countries, the power sector tracking tool allows for the specific application of the archetype in each country. Building on the different challenge dimensions, the tool defines a set of key indicators against which progress in each of the dimensions can be measured and it can be tracked how close an energy system is to reaching the vision. It can provide a concrete evidence basis to define intervention strategies and activities for CASE and other donor driven programmes as well as policymakers and stakeholders at country and regional level.
General Vision
Key elements of the long term vision
The energy transition in the power sector is a pathway towards a clean, affordable and secure energy system (CASE). The vision ofa clean, affordable and secure energy system entails a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions system that is in line with the long term goals of the Paris Agreement which also supports the fulfilment of the sustainable development agenda in terms of social and economic development objectives.
Vision Element 1: Renewables
A Power System Centered on Wind and Solar
A Power System Centered on Wind and Solar
The future power system will primarily rely on wind and solar energy—already among the cheapest and most abundant energy sources. As technology advances, their costs are expected to decrease even further, making them the backbone of a clean and affordable electricity system.
Supported by Other Renewables and Storage Technologies
Hydropower, bioenergy, and geothermal energy will play essential roles by providing reliable, dispatchable power. These sources also contribute to heating, transport, and non-energy services such as water storage and flood mitigation. However, their potential is limited due to environmental concerns, social impacts, and resource availability.
As Non-Renewable Options Become Less Viable
New nuclear power and fossil fuel-based energy with carbon capture and storage (CCS) are becoming increasingly expensive. Their levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) remains uncompetitive compared to renewables, making them less viable in a future energy system.
Global levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from newly commissioned, utility-scale renewable power generation technologies in 2010 and 2019. Fossil-fuel range between 50-177 USD2009 per MWh, lower bound represents new, coal-fired plants in coal-producing regions in China. Source: REN21, 2020 via IRENA, 2020.
Vision Element 2: Flexibility
A Power System That Adapts to Wind and Solar
As wind and solar become the dominant energy sources, their variability introduces new challenges in balancing supply and demand in real time.
Flexibility Becomes the New Standard
The traditional concept of ‘baseload’ power is no longer relevant. Instead, system stability and reliability depend on generators, storage solutions, and demand-side sectors that can quickly adjust to changing conditions.
Stronger Interconnectivity Enhances Stability
Smarter energy integration—such as electrifying transport, industry, and buildings—creates new sources of flexibility. Meanwhile, modernised and interconnected transmission and distribution grids enable resource sharing across wider areas, improving efficiency and resilience.
Left Top: electricity generation and consumption in a sample week with 50% renewable energy share. Left Bottom: highlighting ‘residual’ generation, i.e., non-renewable generation. Source: Agora, 2016. Right: Enablers of power system flexibility in the energy sector. Source: adapted from IRENA, 2018.
Vision Element 3: Grid Structure
From Centralised to Decentralised and Smart Networks
A renewable-based power system moves away from large, centralised grids toward a more distributed structure. As wind and solar costs continue to drop, energy generation will rely on many smaller, decentralised sources.
Grids Take on a More Dynamic Role
Interconnected grids and regional power trading will enable electricity to be transported across wider areas, increasing resource diversity and balancing supply and demand more effectively.
Bidirectional Energy Flows and Digital Integration
With decentralised renewables feeding into low-voltage distribution grids, energy flows will shift from a one-way system to a bidirectional network. Consumers will also become producers—so-called ‘prosumers’—who generate and feed electricity back into the grid.
As more sectors electrify—such as transport through electric vehicles and heating via heat pumps—grid complexity will increase. Digital solutions will be essential for managing this evolving energy ecosystem, ensuring efficient coordination between supply and demand.
Yesterday’s (top) energy supply chain and transmission and distribution grid structures, and the Vision (bottom) with bidirectional flows of energy and money. Digitalisation permeates entire supply chain. Source: IRENA, 2019
Vision Element 4: Market Design
Markets and Regulations Enable a Cost-Effective Energy Transition
In a renewable-driven energy system with decentralised resources, flexibility, and smart grids, electricity markets play a crucial role. They provide the signals needed to ensure system flexibility and attract long-term investments while keeping costs low.
While every power system is unique, an efficient market design typically relies on a combination of long- and short-term markets:
– Futures Market: Where most electricity is traded, primarily used for price hedging.
– Spot Market: A short-term market that balances daily electricity needs.
– Balancing Market: An even shorter-term mechanism that stabilises power and voltage fluctuations in the grid.
Policy and Regulation Support Market Efficiency
Well-designed policies and regulations complement markets where needed, ensuring a stable and efficient transition. Key measures include:
– Financing mechanisms to support renewable energy development.
– Energy efficiency standards to optimise consumption.
– Long-term infrastructure planning to ensure grid stability and expansion.
Illustration of the electricity market, which is made up of various submarkets, each with their own price signals. different markets. Size of square indicates volumes traded. Futures markets can be traded for multiple years into the future, whereas balancing markets happen at a sub-hourly scale.