A new report by the Energy Research Institute and Agora Energiewende highlights pathways to reduce natural gas reliance and expand renewables as part of strategic risk mitigation for Thailand’s energy future.
Bangkok, 18 August 2025 – Thailand is updating its long-term energy strategy as decisions in this period will shape the pathway to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2065. The current Power Development Plan (PDP) 2024 and Gas Plan 2024 extend to 2037 and maintain a significant role for natural gas, which currently accounts for 57% of electricity generation. Under the draft PDP, the share is targeted to fall to 41% by 2037, whereas modelled carbon-neutral scenarios suggest a share of less than 20 % by 2050.
The new report, Thailand’s Natural Gas Crossroads: Strategic Risk Mitigation for a Carbon-Neutral Era, prepared by the Energy Research Institute, Chulalongkorn University and Agora Energiewende under the Clean, Affordable, Secure Energy Transition for Southeast Asia (CASE) project, presents analysis that may assist in aligning medium-term energy plans with long-term national targets. The report examines key risks linked to continued reliance on natural gas, including supply security, economic exposure to global LNG markets, environmental impacts, and the readiness of future abatement technologies.
“This report outlines holistic measures to reduce Thailand’s dependence on natural gas, supporting an equitable and timely transition. It provides a comprehensive framework to assess the risks of ongoing natural gas use and discusses potential mitigation strategies to achieve long-term environmental and economic goals,” said Dr. Weerin Wangjiraniran, Senior Researcher, Energy Research Institute, Chulalongkorn University
Reevaluating natural gas to reduce carbon lock-in risks and enhance system flexibility
Thailand’s gas-fired power infrastructure, underpinned by long-term contracts and approved investments, may limit flexibility to integrate cleaner energy sources and increase exposure to LNG price volatility. The report highlights that moderating the addition of new gas-fired capacity, together with introducing flexibility provisions into existing power purchase agreements (PPAs) and gas supply contracts, could facilitate greater renewable integration. Repurposing existing gas plants and pipelines for low-carbon uses, such as hydrogen transport or grid balancing, is also identified as a potential long-term option.
“By reducing new gas-fired power purchase agreements (PPAs), enhancing flexibility conditions in the existing PPAs and gas supply contracts, the country can better align with the renewable build-up, which not only reduces gas supply costs but also enhances system adaptability. Securing a stable and diversified LNG supply through strategic contract management is vital for maintaining energy security and reaching Thailand’s carbon neutrality,” said Dr. Supawan Saelim, Project Manager, Energy Policy Southeast Asia, Agora Energiewende.
Strengthening emissions reduction and technology readiness
Emerging technologies such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), low-emission hydrogen, and biomethane could contribute to decarbonisation. However, the report notes that these options are at early stages and face cost and scalability challenges. Early and sustained emissions reduction measures, such as improving efficiency and accelerating renewable deployment, can help reduce reliance on these technologies in the future.
“Developing and implementing new technologies along the natural gas value chain is important, including CCUS, low-emission hydrogen, and biomethane. A robust CCUS roadmap, supported by clear policies, financial incentives, and regulations, along with international cooperation to attract investment, will be pivotal in facilitating Thailand’s energy transition,” said Weerin.
Advancing renewable energy through decentralisation and modern grids
While renewable energy growth has faced challenges related to grid integration and energy security, these also present opportunities to accelerate system improvements. The report underscores the importance of enhancing power system flexibility, through decentralised generation, demand-side management, and timely grid modernisation, to unlock greater renewable deployment. Expanding direct power purchase agreements (DPPAs) and introducing Utility Green Tariffs (UGTs) can help meet the growing demand for clean electricity from both businesses and consumers.
“Policymakers can prioritise decentralisation programs with advanced grid planning to meet rising clean electricity demand with greater flexibility. Expanding direct power purchase agreements will allow consumers to source clean energy directly,” said Supawan.
Supporting a just and equitable gas transition
The report highlights an opportunity for Thailand to strengthen its energy transition by developing a just transition roadmap for natural gas, advancing a full gas market liberalisation strategy, and establishing a fair and equitable pricing framework for gas and electricity. A comprehensive gas transition plan, shaped through input from all stakeholders, can help support industries, workers, and consumers through the shift. Transparent market mechanisms and equitable pricing structures will be important tools to guide investments toward cleaner alternatives while safeguarding affordability.
By integrating these considerations into energy planning and regulatory development, Thailand can support a secure, sustainable, and cost-effective transition while maintaining energy security and economic stability.
The full report is available for download at https://caseforsea.org/post_knowledge/thailands-natural-gas-crossroads-strategic-risk-mitigation-for-a-carbon-neutral-era/.
Contact information:
Thitikorn Srichomphoo
Communication Specialist, “Clean, Affordable and Secure Energy for Southeast Asia” (CASE)
E-mail: thitikorn.srichomphoo(at)giz.de
